Like Minds on COVID19

At nearly the same time I posted yesterday, The Lancet published this editorial from Swedish epidemiologist Prof Johan Giesecke. Some excerpts:

It has become clear that a hard lockdown does not protect old and frail people living in care homes—a population the lockdown was designed to protect. Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UK’s experience with that of other European countries.

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Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, and most people will become infected

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There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.

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Measures to flatten the curve might have an effect, but a lockdown only pushes the severe cases into the future —it will not prevent them.

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In summary, COVID-19 is a disease that is highly infectious and spreads rapidly through society. It is often quite symptomless and might pass unnoticed, but it also causes severe disease, and even death, in a proportion of the population, and our most important task is not to stop spread, which is all but futile, but to concentrate on giving the unfortunate victims optimal care.

Link to the paper here

JMM